India’s gold market is on the brink of a historic milestone. Recent statements from the World Gold Council (WGC) chief suggest that the price of 10 grams of 24‑carat gold could touch ₹1.9 lakh within months. This surge reflects a confluence of global supply constraints, domestic demand spikes, and shifting investor sentiment. In the following sections we unpack the price trajectory, examine the macro‑economic catalysts, assess the ripple effects on households and financial markets, and consider what policymakers and investors can realistically expect in the coming year.
Rising price trajectory
Over the past twelve months, gold has appreciated by more than 30 % against the rupee, outpacing most other commodities. The chart below captures the daily closing price of 10 gm of 24‑carat gold from July 2024 to the latest available data on 18 December 2025.
| Date | Price (₹) |
|---|---|
| 01 Jul 2024 | 1,38,200 |
| 01 Jan 2025 | 1,52,400 |
| 01 Jul 2025 | 1,71,800 |
| 18 Dec 2025 | 1,84,500 |
Even with the recent correction in global markets, the upward momentum remains robust, driven largely by domestic buying power and limited new mine output.
Factors driving the surge
Supply‑side constraints have intensified as major producers such as South Africa and Australia report lower ore grades and operational disruptions. Simultaneously, India’s import duty hike to 10 % in September 2024 has curtailed inflows, creating a tighter market.
- Currency depreciation: The rupee’s 7 % fall against the dollar this year has made foreign‑priced gold more expensive.
- Festive demand: Diwali, Akshaya Tritya, and the wedding season traditionally boost retail purchases by 20‑30 %.
- Investment shift: With equity volatility, investors are turning to gold as a safe‑haven asset, increasing holdings in sovereign gold bonds and exchange‑traded funds.
Impact on investors and the broader economy
For households, the price surge translates into higher wealth perception but also squeezes purchasing power. First‑time buyers are delaying acquisitions, while existing owners see a paper‑gain that can be leveraged for loans against gold.
Financial institutions are witnessing a surge in gold‑linked products. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reported a 15 % rise in gold‑loan disbursements Q3 2025, indicating that lenders view gold as collateral in a tightening credit environment.
Future outlook and policy response
Analysts project that if current trends persist, the ₹1.9 lakh barrier could be breached by early 2026. However, policy levers such as a further reduction in import duties or the introduction of a gold‑export incentive could temper the rise.
Investors are advised to diversify, consider synthetic gold ETFs for lower cost exposure, and monitor RBI’s monetary stance, as any shift in interest rates will directly affect gold’s attractiveness.
Conclusion
India stands at a pivotal juncture where gold’s price trajectory is set to rewrite historic benchmarks. The convergence of supply shortages, currency dynamics, festive demand, and safe‑haven flows has propelled the metal toward the ₹1.9 lakh mark per 10 gm. While the surge enhances perceived wealth, it also challenges affordability and prompts a reassessment of investment strategies. Policymakers, lenders, and consumers alike must navigate this evolving landscape with a balanced mix of caution and opportunism.
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